Social media was abuzz this week after NBC published an article that claimed “Thanksgiving dinner is historically affordable this year” and suggested the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 people would cost just $58.08.
The $58 dollar estimate comes from a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which has conducted the same survey since 1984. That survey, however, has a limited number of items on it, which together can’t be considered a full Thanksgiving meal, let alone a meal for 10 people.
The survey asks volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico to search their local grocery stores for the prices for the following items: “Turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream, and whole milk.”
If you’ve ever eaten a Thanksgiving dinner, you’ll notice a few things missing from this list — including potatoes, butter, gravy, and any ingredients needed to turn these basic items into actual dishes.
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When was the last time you sat down for Thanksgiving and filled your plate with cranberries (not in sauce form), peas, celery, carrots, and cooked but plain sweet potatoes? Of course, such a feast wouldn’t be complete without a pie crust and some dry pumpkin pie mix, which you could presumably mix up with that whipping cream. Doesn’t that sound delicious?
In 2018, this survey added ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans. Adding in these items already raises the price to $77.34, so the focus on $58 becomes an obvious attempt to make people think prices are low under the Biden administration. It reminds one of the administration’s embarrassing boast in 2021 that the cost of a July 4th cookout was 16 cents cheaper than in 2020. That, too, was based on a strange list of items used in a Farm Bureau survey.
The claim immediately brought dissent on X, with people wondering how it was possible to feed 10 people for just $58. It turns out, as one might expect, that everything in the article is misleading, starting with the headline.
The average cost of #Thanksgiving dinner (estimated at $58.08 for a 10-person gathering) has dropped 5% since last year – the lowest since 2021. 🦃https://t.co/U5KDj9AlxQ
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 25, 2024
To get the claim that prices are “historically affordable,” NBC had to hide most of what the survey found and use the “adjusted for inflation” metric.
“When adjusted for inflation – or if your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as a consumer in 1984, right before the beginning of this survey – this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, other than the outlier of 2020,” the survey authors wrote.
But earlier in the survey, the authors admit that the cost this year “is still 19% higher than five years ago.”
NBC did include this information in the sixth paragraph, but waves off this information because of federal data showing median household wages have grown 25% in the past five years, even if many workers haven’t seen that increase or don’t feel better off now than they were.
The outlet tried to find Thanksgiving meal deals under $58, but, like the survey, came up short when it came to the true cost of the holiday. Target, for example, has a deal for some items that feeds four and costs just $20. Obviously, one can triple that and feed 12 for $60. But here’s what that includes:
- A frozen turkey up to 10 pounds
- A 5-pound bag of Russet potatoes
- A can of green beans
- A can of Campbell’s cream of mushroom soup
- A can of cranberry sauce
- A box of stuffing mix
- A jar of turkey gravy
Again, this doesn’t include the ingredients needed to turn most of these items into dishes, such as butter or milk, and it also doesn’t include rolls. Add in the additional items needed, and the price goes up – and remember, this is just for four people.
Costco also advertises a Thanksgiving meal kit that includes mashed potatoes, green beans, cranberry sauce, turkey, stuffing, and gravy. It costs about $40, and they say it feeds seven to eight people. Here’s what it looks like:
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NBC found deals at Aldi and Walmart that were closer to a Thanksgiving meal for under or around $58. Aldi has a Thanksgiving basket it says will feed 10 people for just $47, which includes a 16-pound turkey “with spices, gravy, rolls, mac & cheese, stuffing – plus the ingredients for cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes, sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie.”
Now, that sounds like an actual Thanksgiving dinner. But it sounded a bit too good to be true. So, The Daily Wire headed to our local Aldi to check it out.
It turns out, according to two employees we spoke to, there was no basket or set list of items: the announcement was just a way to let people know Aldi has low prices. Specifically, they kept telling us the “pumpkin pie” on the list referred to a prepared pie, even though the Aldi announcement says the $47 price includes “the ingredients for… pumpkin pie.” Adding up all the necessary ingredients to make your own pumpkin pie, using Aldi’s cheapest items still costs about $20 before taxes, so it’s definitely better to buy a prepared pie, although The Daily Wire could not find one at our nearest location.
The Aldi employees also couldn’t say just what ingredients were included in the $47 price – did it include milk or butter?
Walmart also advertises an “inflation-free Thanksgiving” meal that includes 29 items and serves eight people for $56. That’s just under $58 but it feeds two fewer people. Here’s what it includes:
- A 16-pound frozen turkey
- A package of sweet Hawaiian rolls
- 3 cans of sweet whole kernel corn
- 1 can of cranberry sauce
- 2 cans of green beans
- A package of crispy fried onions
- 2 cans of cream of mushroom soup
- 2 packages of brown gravy mix
- A Marie Callender’s southern pecan pie
- A can of whipped topping
- 1 pie crust
- 1 can of pure pumpkin
- A carton of evaporated milk
- Mini marshmallows
- 2 boxes of corn muffin mix
- A package of poultry seasoning
- A package of chicken broth
- A 5-pound bag of Russet potatoes
- 3 sweet potatoes
- 1 yellow onion
- A package of celery stalks
That does include a lot of ingredients, but is also missing the basic mixing items like butter and milk. The pumpkin pie recipe on the back of the can of pure pumpkin, for example, requires eggs, sugar, salt, cloves, nutmeg, ginger, cinnamon, and milk – none of which are included in the list above (the evaporated milk would be the substitute). If using the ingredients to make a sweet potato pie, you’re still missing eggs, brown sugar, butter, and other spices, depending on your recipe. The corn muffin mix also calls for an egg and milk, and possibly paper baking cups, all additional to the list above.
Now, let’s talk about the turkey. A 16-pound turkey isn’t enough for 10 people, unless most of those people are children or are as tiny as The Daily Wire’s Kassy Akiva. Maybe these companies are banking on you having a lot of vegan relatives.
Also, a single pack of this brand of rolls means one small roll per person with two left over. How many people will be satisfied with only one roll? Certainly more than two.
To find out what $58 can actually buy for Thanksgiving, The Daily Wire went to a local grocery chain – one that wouldn’t be considered the “top tier” chain in the area. Using store rewards deals and choosing cheaper alternatives, we attempted to get items that would be included on a standard Thanksgiving dinner list. Here’s what we were able to get for $58.11 (remember the estimate is $58.08).
Ashe Short/The Daily Wire
We have a turkey and gravy mix, potatoes (but no butter or milk to properly mash them), two prepared pies, five cans of green beans (it was a 5 for $5 deal), and crispy French onions (but no cream of mushroom soup), two boxes of stuffing mix, and brown sugar, yams, and mini marshmallows (but no additional spices). So, with this, we could make … turkey, gravy, stuffing, and pie. We didn’t have enough for a green bean casserole or mashed potatoes or yams with marshmallows. We could cook potatoes and smash them, but they would have no flavor unless we already had enough butter and milk at home.
This picture is also misleading, because that is the before tax cost of those items. Our state has a 4.75% sales tax, which would bring the cost up to $60.87, over the average claimed in the NBC article.
To see what the cost of an actual Thanksgiving for 10 people would cost, The Daily Wire continued shopping to collect the remaining ingredients needed to make or vastly improve the dishes we were going for. We also included three bottles of cheap wine, because none of the grocery stores – or the Farm Bureau survey – took into account that people need to drink something during Thanksgiving dinner. Or maybe they just expected everyone to drink water, or already have enough juice or soda or whatever at home?
Shopping the lowest prices we could, our list still came to $126.31 before taxes, or more than $130 after taxes. Granted, one could buy more prepared foods like mashed potatoes or yams, or make other dishes that don’t require a lot of extra ingredients. But based on all our research, it seems impossible to actually make Thanksgiving dinner for 10 regular people and keep the cost to around $58.